How did the late 19th and early 20th century French sociologist Gabriel Tarde understand belief and desire? He did so with much novelty, I want to argue, because he did not associate either belief or desire with “content” (see Hutto 2013). Neither did he associate them with what we might call today qualitative data. Consider the following statement from his most thorough treatment of the topic: “attention is the desire to clarify the nascent sensation, this amounts to saying that it is the desire for an increase in current belief” (1880: 152). Here, attention is a type of desire linked with belief. We pay attention to increase belief. Moreover, we achieve sensation based on belief, which refers to an amount (of something) associated with the clarity of sensation.
Lots of moving parts here! And the arrangement among them, and the relations between them, are novel (and, as I will claim below, perhaps quite contemporary), particularly if we are used to hearing belief and desire linked in a customary, deductive folk-psychological model.
Tarde gives the example of a child questioning whether to walk underneath a large rock teetering on a ledge as he makes his way down a narrow path. The child thinks “if this rock falls it will crush me.” The image of the falling movement of the rock “presents itself to the child’s mind; and his mind … establishes no link of positive or negative faith between the two ideas,” either the rock falling or it not falling. But “he desires, he needs to believe, to affirm or deny. This desire, which has a future belief as its object, is questioning” (153). The premise here seems to be that to walk under the rock, the child needs to establish a positive faith that it will not fall.
So desire and belief are linked, in Tarde’s view, and both are associated with a theory of action, but if both are also quantitative, then the operant question is less what you believe or what your desire is, than it is how much you believe and desire, which is a question we cannot answer without attending to perception. Thus, “belief, no more than desire, is neither logically nor psychologically posterior to sensations; that far from arising from the aggregation of these, it is indispensable to their formation, as well as their grouping” (152).
As Tarde explains, his thesis is that “belief and desire are quantities,” and that “sensation is not in itself a quantity” (161). Thus, it makes no sense to say that we sense something with greater or lesser intensity, though it does make sense to say that we believe or desire with greater or lesser intensity.
Suppose that we are a candidate for public office and it is election night. With each new bit of news and gossip our hopes and fears rise and fall. As Tarde puts it, “the calculation of probabilities plays no role in this. But what is quite clear is the very marked quantitative character of these hopes and fears” (172). Our being elected to office, as a particular event in the world, becomes more or less likely, though that is not because we actually calculate a statistical percentage (e.g. 90% chance it will happen). Contrary to the present-day association of the quantitative with the frequency of occurrence of many events, Tarde associates quantitative with particularity. Thus, the only way a frequency of occurrence helps us is by increasing our quantity of belief, though to do this it would have, seemingly paradoxically, to have the effect of making whatever is counted with frequency appear more particular and less diffuse.
Suppose, further, that we see someone at a distance who might be our friend. Initially, we have little belief as all we can see is a mere speck on the horizon. However, “our faith in the reality of [our friend’s] presence” steadily grows as they approach us (172). As Tarde explains, “here again no application of the calculus of probabilities is possible or imaginable. However, these are, I believe, quantitative variations in the same way as the rise or fall of temperature.”
Tarde draws a simple but paradoxical lesson from these examples: quantification increases alongside individualization or particularization. In other words, as the indefinite speck comes into view as our friend Bob, we have quantitatively more belief; meanwhile, as the gossip winds blow strongly against us, we quantitatively lose hope. In both cases, the “clarity of sensation” entails a future object, which implies that Tarde’s statements are of the order of prediction.
Thus, as Tarde himself suggests, probability is integral to belief and desire. As he puts it, “if the calculation of probabilities has a real basis, if it is not a false calculation,” then probability cannot have a mathematical meaning. For belief to directly track “mathematical reasons for believing,” then our “increases and decreases of belief” would need to be “proportioned exactly to the increases and decreases of what one might call the mathematical reasons for believing.” Yet the “reasons for believing” are not reflective of “intrinsic characteristics of things.” If they were, that would “restore an objective meaning to probability.” Rather, as Tarde claims:
These are entirely subjective reasons themselves, which consist in the knowledge we have, not of the causes of an expected and unknown event, but of the limits of the field [du champ] outside of which we are sure they will not occur, and of the division of this domain into two unequal portions, one called favorable chances, the other adverse chances, the inequality of which can be quantified (170).
For Tarde, then, belief and desire are not only quantitative, and characterized by increase and decrease, but also probabilistic, and characterized by prediction. (Notably, Tarde was an admirer of the obscure 19th century French philosopher Antoine Auguste Cournot who associated probability with a “higher faculty whereby we comprehend the order and rationality of things,” and which he in turn associated with “those unshakeable beliefs we call common sense.”) Belief and desire reflects an expansion and contraction in the field of possibility. Outside the field, there is no possibility. Within the field, that possibility is dictated by a relative weighing of chances for and chances again. Quantification, again, traces the clarity of our sensation of something particular—the more particular our object of it is, the more clear our sensation. Our prediction of future events is based on our perceptual information and what appears to be the kind of weight it lends to a field of possibility.
If belief and desire are “psychological” properties in Tarde’s view, that does not mean they are discrete and “contentful.” Thus, they are not “qualitative,” nor can they be treated as qualitative data. They are intentional attitudes, however, as belief and desire is about something that exists in some state of extension relative to us (e.g. distance either in space or in time). When we believe and desire we exhibit a directedness toward something; but we cannot dissect our belief or desire into a propositional attitude. They do not, in other words, have a representational content that makes a proposal about the world (e.g. “I believe that” or “I desire that”). Instead, they function more as continuums of greater or lesser.
The image the Tarde provides is comparable to what I have elsewhere theorized as a loop. Tarde makes it clear that we feel “belief” and “desire,” they are affectual, intensive states, but they appear to be moderated by probability. Tarde does not endorse the separation of belief and desire from perception: “All the force of belief and desire at our disposal and which flows, not without loss, into our conduct and our thoughts, is produced, in fact, or rather provoked by the continual experiences of our senses” (174). As Tarde would say: “belief (la croyance), desire (le désir) and sensation (le sensation),” these are seuls éléments de Vâme (the only elements of the soul) (153). Perception (sensation) provokes belief and desire, though if belief equals “stabilization” and desire equals “extension”, then the “double power” that Tarde alludes to has something of a contradictory task.
If any of this is accurate, then Tarde would seem to anticipate, quite closely, the basic mechanism introduced by the predictive processing paradigm according to which, likewise, the brain is not a representation engine but a prediction engine that also features a kind of double power (see Reeder, Sala and van Leeuwen 2024). Here, perception is achieved through a balanced weighing of predictions based on prior knowledge (top-down) and sensory information from the environment (bottom-up). As Tarde puts it, belief and desire are of the order of transcendental conditions for sensation:
… it is time to enter into the very heart of our subject, – belief and desire are, in our opinion, like space and time, quantities which, serving as a link and support for qualities, make them participate in their quantitative character; they are, in other words, constant identities which, far from preventing the heterogeneity of the things embedded within them, enhance them, penetrate them entirely without, however, constituting them, unite them without confusing them, and subsist unalterably in their midst despite the close intimacy of this union. … My thesis, as we see, implies two: 1. belief and desire are quantities; 2. there are no others in psychology, or there are only derivatives of these; which amounts to saying that sensation is not in itself a quantity (161).
In an optimal perceptual system, priors (expectation) will be deployed prior to perception, so that the least amount of energy will be spent in updating one’s internal model with the accumulation of sensual information. “Prediction error” refers to the difference between predicted and actual sensory input. It is inherent to top-down mechanisms of perception. What Tarde argues about sensation and its lack of quantity, makes a parallel point. Belief and desire secure sensation by moving toward clarity in a nascent sensation.
On these grounds, Tarde asks whether it is legitimate to “totalize” belief and desire, which seems to mean whether he can talk about them as taking on a collective form. His argument is that sensations differ between individuals, but “if believing and desiring also differed, tradition would be nothing but an empty phrase; nothing human could be transmitted unaltered from one generation to the next” (175). Tarde’s point, again, only makes sense if we do not assume that belief and desire has “content.” As he continues, “only through belief, only through desire, do we collaborate, we fight; only through this, therefore, do we resemble each other.” For Tarde, “the totalization of the quantities of belief or desire of distinct individuals is legitimate.” (176). We present such a totalization when we track “variations in the market value of things, statistical figures …” However, to explain these (really existing) “totalities” as ones of content (e.g. beliefs that or values that) would be deeply misleading.
Weber deflected his own probabilistic approach from Tarde’s on two occasions (2019/1921-22: 100-01; 1981/1913: 167-68). Both times he pivots from Tarde’s principle of “imitation” to a consideration of objective probability. If there is “consensus,” Weber argues, it means that “action oriented toward expectations about the behavior of others has an empirically realistic chance of seeing these expectations fulfilled because of the objective probability that these others will, in reality, treat those expectations as meaningfully “valid” for their behavior, despite the absence of an explicit agreement” (1981/1913: 168). But as Weber continues, “the objectively ‘valid’ consensus—in the sense of calculable probabilities—is naturally not to be confused with the individual actor’s reliance that others will treat his expectations as valid.” It is instead because of the relation of “adequate causation between the average objective validity of the probability and the currently average subjective expectation” (168). This would imply that the source of consensus is also not to be found in content, and that it also arises as a probabilistic alignment of individuals.
Weber, thus, might have more in common with Tarde then he imagines. But I’ll save that for another post.
References
Hutto, Daniel (2013). “Why Believe in Contentless Beliefs?” Pp. 55-74 in New Essays on Belief. Springer.
Reeder, Reshanne, Giovanni Sala, Tessa M van Leeuwen (2024). “A Novel Model of Divergent Predictive Perception.” Neuroscience of Consciousness 2024, no. 1: niae006.
Tarde, Gabriel (1880). “La Croyance et le Désir: La Possibilité de leur Mesure.” Revue Philosophique de la France et de l’Étranger (July-December): 150-80.
Weber, Max (2019/1920-21). Economy and Society: A New Translation. Harvard University Press.
_____. (1981/1913). “Some Categories of Interpretive Sociology.” Sociological Quarterly 22, no. 2: 151-80.











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